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Weather Blog: Thunderstorms possible today; another correct LRC prediction

Posted at 8:42 AM, Jun 03, 2020
and last updated 2020-06-03 11:06:20-04

Good morning bloggers,

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms in KC today. The main risk is when any thunderstorm first develops, as the initial strong updraft may be able to produce some hail. Then, when the thunderstorm dissipates, it may produce a strong severe wind gust. The chance of either of these happening at any specific location is low. The chance of a thunderstorm over your location is only 20% during the day today. The chance of thunderstorms does increase after midnight, and this is when there is a slight risk of wind damage, if they become organized into an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System).

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There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms today, and the Storm Prediction Center issues these risks. The center does not have KC in any serious risk of tornadoes, with its lowest risk level being 2%. So, we will put the chance at 1% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any location. Whenever you have a risk of severe thunderstorms the chance of a tornado is never really 0%, but conditions are highly unfavorable for this type of severe weather, and it really is barely a slight risk today anyway.

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There is a little wind shift line/weak front stalling in the area this evening. So, this will be the area that may be strong enough to produce a few thunderstorms.

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Notice that there are a few thunderstorms forecast by our Baron 3k model for this afternoon. And, this same model produces this later tonight:

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We will be monitoring these developments closely on 41 Action News later today and tonight. And then in the next few days, we will be concentrating on the tropics.

The eight-month prediction of a Tropical Storm to develop in the Gulf of Mexico

Eight months ago, Tropical Storm Nestor formed over the Gulf of Mexico around October 17 to 18. I remember discussing this in one of the blog entries eight months ago, and we projected this part of the pattern to cycle back through during hurricane season. Now, Tropical Storm Cristobal, the earliest third-named storm of the season ever recorded, is meandering around near the south Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche. It will not begin its northward movement for a couple more days.

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We already knew where this would likely track. Take a look at Nestor from eight months ago:

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As you look at this satellite picture from 12z on Oct. 18, 2019, get it in your mind, as this is where we are confident Cristobal is headed toward. Now, Nestor then moved northeast from this point as it was being absorbed into the flow and kicked out by a strong storm moving into the plains. Yes, this is the signature part of the LRC that has produced the worst severe weather episodes in this year's LRC pattern.

Tropical Storm Cristobal may become a hurricane, one of the earliest hurricanes ever recorded, if it does indeed strengthen into one, and then it will get picked up by a strong and developing jet stream, right on schedule later this weekend into next week. Remember it is a 59-day cycle, and what happened 59 days before early next week? The Easter weekend severe weather outbreak. We will have to see how this LRC cycle 5 version sets up. Since it is now June, and summer is approaching, the jet stream is weaker and shifting north. The tropical easteries begin to have a more significant effect, and this is why Cristobal is more likely to turn northwest as it approaches Louisiana. This part of the cycling pattern will return two more times during hurricane season. Texas and Louisiana are at a much higher risk of landfalling storms than other regions this summer.

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This is Cristobal this morning. It will begin its move north in a couple of days.

So, again, I am expecting, and for months we have been predicting, that a tropical storm may form around June 2-10. This next graphic is from our April update:

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I drew in the different possible tracks, as there are seasonal differences in the jet stream strength and position that drives these systems. Watch closely, and you will see this system track very close if not almost exactly over where Nestor tracked eight months ago.

If you would like to learn more about the LRC and if your company is interested, then go to Weather2020.com.

Kansas City Weather Forecast Timeline:

  • Today: A few periods of clouds with a mostly sunny sky. A few clouds may be building up with a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. The chance of rain at any one location is 20%. South winds 5-15 mph. High: 90°
  • Tonight: There is a slight chance of an evening thunderstorm, and then the chance of rain increases to 60% later tonight. Low: 68°. The winds will be gusty near thunderstorms, and there is a slight risk of severe weather.
  • Thursday: It will be partly cloudy with a chance of early morning thunderstorms, and then it will be sunny with a few afternoon clouds and a slight chance of afternoon or evening thunderstorms. High: 90°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Have a great day!

Gary