Good Wednesday bloggers,
The picture above was taken by Austin Hamilton in Chariton, IA about 30 miles south of Des Moines. Thank you for sending this Austin. A small system last night brought 1-2" of snow to southern Iowa and around 1/2" of snow across northern Missouri. This is just the small appetizer to quite a meal of weather the next two days. The weather will be different almost every hour and in every square mile of eastern Kansas and western Missouri Thursday into Friday. This continues the trend of the awkward April. This morning we saw our 8th freeze of the month and it's only half over. March saw a total of 5 freezes.
This month we have seen 1 day with a high in the 30s, 2 in the 40s, 3 in the 50s, 2 in the 60s, 2 in the 70s and 2 in the 80s. One of those 80 degree days was a record at 88. We have seen freezing rain (4/3), and severe hail (4/11). We have seen several strong cold fronts and now we have this odd storm Thursday. Let's go through this.
We showed this yesterday and there is little change today. This is the surface set up for Thursday at 4 PM. Winter is north and spring is south. It is shifted a bit farther north than it looked yesterday. I will explain what that may mean below.
THURSDAY 7 AM: A few showers may occur tonight, but things will start to happen early Thursday. Snow will be increasing across northern Missouri as an area of showers and thunderstorms form southwest of KC. Lows will be around 40 as an east wind increases to 15-25 mph.
THURSDAY 7-10 AM: The rain and thunderstorms really increase and we could see some heavy, cold rain along with some lightning and thunder. Temperatures will be in the 40s with 30s well north and 50s south as the warm front drifts north. Snow will be widespread along the Missouri-Iowa border. It will be windy from the east at 15-30 mph. The wind will continue all day and night. The wind at night will be coming from the north.
THURSDAY 10 AM-3 PM: The initial round of heavy rain and thunderstorms will move off to the northeast. The snow will continue along the MO-IA border. The warm front will drift north and look at the temperatures. 36 in Maryville, MO to 69 at Emporia, KS. The KC area will be in the 40s and 50s. A slight shift north we could jump to the 60s. And a shift south we could be in the 30s. Since yesterday, referring to the temperature map above, we have seen a shift of the warmer air north. This could mean we have a less chance of snow. Now, regardless, the most snow will occur in far northern Missouri and southern Iowa. Will there be any snow along the I-70 corridor? If there is it will come between midnight Thursday night and 8 AM Friday as a second part to the system moves by.
THURSDAY 3-8 PM: The snow will continue north as a new round of rain and thunderstorms moves across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Once this line moves by, the colder air will surge south.
THURSDAY 8 PM-FRIDAY 6 AM: The second system will spread a widespread mix of rain and snow with temperatures in the 30s. If temperatures are more like 35-40 then we will see mostly rain. If temperatures are 30-34 we will see more snow and if they hover around 35 we will see both. Right now it looks like the "around 35" is the answer. But, we have to watch this closely.
FRIDAY 6 AM-NOON: The precipitation will end with temperatures in the 30s. The wind will be decreasing. We have a chance for our 9th freeze this month.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: The storm will be gone, the sun will be out and the winds will be less. If we see snow in April, it does disappear fast. Highs will be 45-50. Saturday will start in the 30s and end up around 60, a nice, but breezy day. Sunday will see more clouds with highs in the 60s as a new system moves by to our south. We could see a brief rain shower.
How much rain and snow are possible?
RAINFALL FORECAST: Most locations will receive .25" to 1" of rain/melted snow. A few locations could see 1" to 1.50" of rain. The thunderstorms will determine the locations that see the heaviest rain. This is a good time to put fertilizer down.
SNOWFALL FORECAST: The heaviest band will be along the Iowa-Missouri border. Yesterday we showed 15" of snow at Kirksville. The new data has 5-6". But, there is still the chance up there for a thin band of 10"-15" of snow. That is the pink area. The second system is depicted by the dusting to 1" band in southwest Kansas.
The southern band begins to change to rain around here with patchy snowfall up to 1/4". Again a degree or two colder more locations will see the a dusting to 1" around here.
Here is a summary of what we showed above. That is a lot of weather in a 24-36 hour period.
Have a great rest of your week and weekend. Stay healthy!
