Weather Blog: Tracking a 'backdoor' cold front

Posted at 12:42 PM, May 24, 2023
and last updated 2023-05-24 14:02:48-04

Good Wednesday bloggers,

We are in a situation where we need rain, but there is a big holiday weekend around the corner. This holiday weekend is on-average the wettest time of year.

Since, there is nothing we can do about the weather but forecast it, lets go day by day through Memorial Day and see if we can get much needed rain on non holiday weekend days.

A disturbance from the east will drift overhead and we will see an increase in humidity and cumulus clouds.

Some of the cumulus clouds will become small cumulonimbus clouds. This means there will be a few showers and thunderstorms between 3 p.m. and 10 p.m. They will move west-northwest about 10-20 mph and they will be rather small.

So, if you get underneath one, you may have a five-15 minute downpour, a few flashes of lightning and a quick .05"-.25". The relatively bigger thunderstorms may produce a quick .25"-.50". The wind may gust to 30-40 mph for short time as well.

Highs today will be 80°-85°.


The disturbance will weaken, but then we will turn our attention to a cold front coming in from the northeast. These are called "backdoor cold fronts" as it is not coming in from the usual front door, northwest and west. This front will be approaching Thursday and will be another mechanism to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Highs will be around 80° with an east-southeast wind 5-15 mph.

This front will play a big role in the Memorial Day weekend forecast. Behind the front, temperatures are slightly cooler. But, more importantly the air will be much drier behind the front. Notice the lack of clouds east of the front.


The "backdoor front" will push through Friday, pushing the cumulus clouds, cumulonimbus clouds and higher humidity to the west.

So, Friday around here will see fantastic weather. It will be mostly sunny, with low humidity and highs 75°-80°. The wind will be east 10-20 mph.


Each day is likely to be dry due to weather features moving very slow this weekend. So, we will keep the lower humidity around along with plenty of sunshine and winds from the east and southeast at 5-15 mph, at times 20 mph.

Highs will be around 80° Saturday, low 80s Sunday and mid to upper 80s Memorial Day. Lows will be 55°-60° most days.

The humidity will be increase a bit on Memorial Day and there is a very slight chance for a shower, thunderstorm as systems and higher humidity begin to drift east.

There are signs next week, after the holiday weekend, for increased rain and thunderstorm chances. Confidence is moderate in this potential change to better rain chances.


The western Plains will see quite a bit of rain with 2"-5" amounts which is great news for the ongoing drought.

The main rain around here will occur today and Friday with amounts none to .50". Some lucky yards and farms could get a nice drink of water.


So, basically we are looking at great Memorial Day weekend weather which is rare. Again, on average it is the wettest weekend of the year. We will watch Memorial Day for a few thunderstorms, but perhaps more beneficial rain will hold off until after the holiday weekend.

Have a great week and safe Memorial Day weekend.
Stay healthy.