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Weather Blog: Tracking an Odd Weather System

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Posted at 12:47 PM, Jun 29, 2020
and last updated 2020-06-29 13:47:26-04

Good Monday bloggers,

If we do not get any rain by midnight Tuesday night, we will finish June 3.27" below average. There is a system that will be capable of producing 4" to 10" of rain near by. We will talk about this system below.

We have seen just 57% of average rainfall the last 30 days. Keep in mind that the last 30 days, on average, are the wettest of the season where we average about 5.25" of rain. Now, that being said there have been two zones in our region that have seen decent rain. One extends from western Kansas to Wisconsin and the other extends from Wisconsin to around the Ozarks. Take a look at Chanute, KS, 35% of average rainfall.

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Here is a satellite image from 11:40 AM Monday. There are two storm systems to track. One is located in northern Minnesota where it has brought quite a bit of rain up there that last 24 hours. The other is in Arkansas tracking north into Missouri. These systems are bringing rain to the two zones that have seen plenty of rain. The northern system is exiting to Canada, we will focus on the southern system.

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MONDAY: The southern system will move north into Missouri with scattered showers and thunderstorms. It is bringing us clouds, which keeps the high heat away. We will see highs in the low to mid 80s with highs 95-105 out west. It will look like rain all day, but not much will occur. Also, the Saharan dust is much less today as the thickest part went through Sunday. We will see light dust in the sky this week.

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TONIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING: Here is what makes the system odd. It will blow up at night into a ball of water. It may resemble a hurricane at times. You can see it will likely affect northeast Missouri, western Illinois and southeast Iowa. We will get the clouds and there is a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm if one wanders far enough west to affect our area. Lows will be in the 70s.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON: The storm ramps down during the day, but it is still sitting in basically the same place. We will get the clouds which again keeps the high heat away. Highs will be in the 80s with the 95-105 out west. There will be more sun Tuesday, so highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible.

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TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING: It blows up again in basically the same spot. There are other thunderstorms in northern Iowa. There is a remote chance that one of those becomes a line and tracks south into our region. Most likely it will be dry, warm and humid with lows in the 70s.

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WEDNESDAY: The odd system tracks north and weakens. There will still be some showers and thunderstorms in Iowa, western Illinois and northeast Missouri. The clouds will shift east and this will allow the higher heat to creep in. Highs will be 90-95 with high humidity.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Wow! 4"-10" of rain will occur where the odd storm tracks. We are forecast see 1 whole hundredth of an inch. The storm could track farther west, but not far enough west to bring us meaningful rain. The only chance would be if some line of thunderstorms in Iowa decides to track south into our region early Wednesday.

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Thursday through the 4th of July weekend will see highs mostly around 90 with lows 70-75. Each day there is a chance of an isolated thunderstorm. One or two of the days may see higher coverage in a small area.

Have a great week and stay healthy.