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Weather Blog: Tracking the Severe Threat for Later Today and Tonight

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Posted at 12:36 PM, May 14, 2020
and last updated 2020-05-14 13:36:02-04

Good Thursday bloggers,

We are tracking a cold front that is now located from southern Iowa to southwest Kansas. This is where thunderstorms will form after 5 PM. The front will be heading south, so we expect thunderstorms to start forming after 5 PM across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. A few may form around I-70. Some may contain large hail and damaging winds.

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THURSDAY 6 PM: You can see scattered thunderstorms. This has not become the main show yet, but a few thunderstorms may become severe.

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THURSDAY 8 PM: You can see more organization to this area. The heaviest, on this data, extends from Kansas City to Topeka. This heaviest area could end up anywhere along the line. If you get in one of these heavy clusters, you can expect a chance for large hail and damaging winds. The most concerning threat may end up being flash flooding as these thunderstorms can have 2"-3" per hour rainfall rates. Flooding is the number one severe weather related weather killer per year. That is why we are under a Flash Flood Watch for tonight. Now, some areas will get missed by the heaviest. In those locations large hail and damaging winds would be the main threats with rainfall .25" to 1" or less.

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THURSDAY 10 PM: You can see the line shifting south with a bit of a bow echo. The bow echo is a sign of potential damaging winds.

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FRIDAY MORNING: The line is down along I-44. We may see some lingering showers with lows around 60. Friday will end up being a nice day with highs 70-75.

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SEVERE THREATS: The tornado threat is not 0%, but it is quite low with this set up. Again, damaging winds and large hail are the main threats with flash flooding likely being the highest.

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Stay weather aware and be healthy. We will update the blog through the afternoon and evening.