Weather blog: Tricky 'clipper' system for Chiefs Sunday

Posted at 2:57 AM, Jan 19, 2022
and last updated 2022-01-19 06:29:54-05

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Good Wednesday bloggers,

The forecast for the Chiefs game is becoming more tricky than we would like. Let's go through this forecast day by day to Chiefs Sunday.


After a high in the 50s Tuesday we will see temperatures drop to the teens today with wind chill values of zero to 10 degrees. The wind will be from the north at 15 to 30 miles per hour with a few flurries. We do not expect any accumulation.


On the wider view, you can see we are on the southern edge of the Arctic air, which means it can leave fast. But, you can also see the 100-degree temperature difference from the 80s in south Texas to -20 degrees in the Dakotas! In this case, there is no big storm system forming on the temperature gradient.



Our flurries will go on to become a bigger snow event from southern Missouri to New England. This is what most systems have been doing since the middle of November. A separate light snow event will occur in the western Plains where a dusting to 2 inches is possible. The rest of this month we will have two to four chances of mostly light snow events. February has the potential to see bigger systems.



EEK! Temperatures will drop to the single digits along with north winds 5 to 15 miles per hour. This will put wind chill values from -10 degrees to zero.



We will still be on the southern edge of the Arctic air with highs in the teens.



The Arctic air will retreat to the north as a warm front approaches. We will see highs in the 20s after lows again in the single digits. A cold front near the Canadian border will head south and then east, not coming through our area.



The cold front at the U.S.-Canadian border Friday will make it to northern Missouri before stalling. This sets up a zone between Arctic air and mild air from Nebraska to Canada. It is along this temperature gradient that a fast-moving system will track southeast from western Canada to our region Sunday. This type of system is called an "Alberta Clipper." These systems originate in western Canada (most often the province of Alberta) and then race southeast. It is usually cold with snow east of the track and dry/much warmer west of the track.



The clipper system on the data from Monday had it tracking across eastern Iowa to Illinois putting our area firmly in the warm air. Data Tuesday had this clipper tracking much farther southwest. This puts Arrowhead quite close to much colder air. The data in overnight and early this morning now is trending back to the warmer solution!





Which one is right? We will need to get closer to Sunday with the new data to make a more definite call. We are going to keep the forecast for highs in the 40s, dropping to the 30s during the game. If the newer data is right, highs Sunday will be in the 50s with 40s during the game.

One note is that this is actually a second clipper ahead of the main one that will track north of us Monday. So, this is complicating things. It was the main one that was tracking north of us Sunday on the data from Monday.

That was a mouth full! Bottom line...we are on the edge as usual. We will be updating it daily.

Have a great week and stay healthy.