Weather Blog - Tropical Storm Nepartak Moves Into Japan & Kansas City Heat Builds Overhead

Upper Level Flow Wednesday
Posted at 7:13 AM, Jul 27, 2021
and last updated 2021-07-27 08:52:11-04

Good morning bloggers,

This wild summer weather pattern continues, and there is a lot to discuss this morning. We hope you are enjoying the Olympics on KSHB-41. Last night, NBC Nightly News continued to broadcast from Tokyo, Japan, and Lester Holt was blowing in the wind blown rain. Months ago I shared this prediction below on social media and it has verified. Take a look:

LRC Prediction Verified

When I posted this prediction from the LRC weather model, I noticed the rain chances in Tokyo. I wondered at the time if it would rain during the Olympics and if there may be a tropical storm approaching Japan. It hadn't rained in a while in Tokyo. Well, then it rained a little bit on the Opening Ceremony Friday night. And, now, Tropical Storm Npartak is moving in from the east. Look at the spike of rain forecast by the model centered right on July 26th. This is an example of how the pattern is cycling over Japan and the United States with the same LRC, which describes the order in chaos in the river of air over the Northern Hemisphere.

Kansas City Weather

There has been flooding near Death Valley, CA and widespread thunderstorms over the southwestern United States early this week. And now, the summer anticyclone is strengthening as expected as you can see below:

Upper Level Flow Wednesday

The jet stream has retreated way north above this anticyclone. This pattern is going to increase the heat over the west and plains states. There is still flow over the Great Lakes and northeastern USA and this will keep that area a bit cooler. By the end of the week and into the weekend the upper level high is forecast to be forced south. A storm system will form just north of the Great Lakes and this will drive a cold front south into our area by Friday and Saturday. A rather interesting set up for thunderstorms will form. It looks like we will have a good chance of at least one round of thunderstorms with some heavy rainfall Friday or Saturday. We will discuss this in tomorrows blog.

Upper Level Flow Saturday

For now, the heat tops our weather news. The heat will build over Kansas City between now and Thursday before that cold front approaches.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Mostly sunny, hot, and increasingly more humid. High: 93°
  • Tonight: A warm evening followed by comfortable overnight temperatures. Low: 74°
  • Wednesday: Hot & humid. Light south to southwest winds around 10 mph. High: 97° Heat Index will be near 105°
  • Thursday: The heat continues with nearly 100% sunshine. A southwest to west breeze at 10-15 mph. High: 98° Heat Index near 106°
  • Friday: Turning cooler with a chance of thunderstorms later in the day. High: 87°

The heat index is a value that is designed to tell you the temperature that the body reacts to, and some people call it a "feels like" temperature. I am not a big fan of this because the actual temperature is a flawed concept. We rarely tell you the actual temperature reading. To make temperatures universal, the official readings are taken in the shade. The actual temperature when it is cloudy or in the shade may be 90 degrees. When the sun comes out, the actual temperature will be around 10 degrees hotter or 100 degrees. So, when we tell you that the temperature is 97° tomorrow, Wednesday's high, what is it really. If you are in the shade it will likely be 97°. But, if you are in the sun, the actual temperature will be 107° or so. Now, add in the humidity, and the actual temperature does not change at all. If it is very humid, we may tell you that the heat index is 105° while we also tell you that the actual temperature is 97°. When in reality, if the sun is out like we expect it to be the next three days, the actual temperature will be 107° Wednesday and 108° Thursday. This would make that Heat Index closer to 120° on a very humid day. As a result, I am not a big fan of showing the Heat Index. I like to say that it is 98° and very humid! Hopefully this makes sense to you!

Another important concept on the measurement of humidity that is confusing. We will show the dew point temperature more often than showing the Relative Humidity. The humidity is "relative" to the temperature. Look at this example:


It felt more comfortable yesterday as the dew point dropped to 65 degrees yesterday. Look at these examples:

  • Let's say it is 90° with a dew point of 70°. This creates a relative humidity of 55%
  • When it is 40° outside with a dew point of 25°, the relative humidity is also 55%

So, when it is 40° outside with a 25° dew point, we are not going to say it is humid. It is far from it. That is actually pretty dry. But, the relative humidity at 90 degrees and 40 degrees is exactly the same at 55%. The dew point of 70° however will always be humid, actually pretty extreme.

Today, the dew point is in the lower 60s, and it feels pretty comfortable. By tomorrow and Thursday, the dew point is forecast to go back up to near or above 70 degrees. The relative humidity won't go up, but the the moisture in the air will! The relative humidity is 100% when the temperature and the dew point are the same. So, when it is 0° or 80°, the relative humidity can be 100% if the dew point is 0° or 80°.

It does not look like this heat developing will qualify as a heat wave. A heat wave in KC is defined to be three consecutive days of 95° or higher. This will likely go down as just a hot spell! We will be making a run at 100 degrees by Thursday. We will go over all of this on KSHB-41 News today and tonight.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Have a terrific Tuesday.