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Weather Blog: Tuesday brings thunderstorm threat

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Posted at 4:57 PM, Apr 27, 2020
and last updated 2020-04-27 18:22:00-04

Good Monday bloggers,

We are turning our attention to one main storm system for this week. The storm system will start forming in the northern Plains tonight then track southeast into the Midwest and Great Lakes region on Wednesday and Thursday.

It will intensify as it takes this track northeast of our region. You can see the upper-level flow for Thursday. There is an upper-level low over the Great Lakes as a ridge pushes into the Plains.

This means by then we will be back to some nice spring weather. Until then, we will see a cold front sweep across the region Tuesday, but will it bring severe thunderstorms to our region? Let's go through this.

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This is the severe weather outlook for Tuesday from the Storm Prediction Center (issued Monday). The main severe threat is across central and eastern sections of Oklahoma and Texas into Arkansas and Louisiana, where the threat level is 3 of 5. Levels 1 and 2 of 5 risks extend north to southern Wisconsin.

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Here is a closer look at the risk for Tuesday. You can see it includes locations along and east of I-35. The western edge of the threat solely depends on how fast thunderstorms form on a rapidly southeast advancing front.

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TUESDAY 7 AM-10 AM: It will be dry and mild tonight with lows 55-60. Tuesday morning will be dry as we see the cold front tracking across northeast Nebraska and western Kansas. There will be showers and a few thunderstorms along and ahead of the front.

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TUESDAY 10 AM-2 PM: The front will cross our region during this time. We will see temperatures rise to the 70s. Scattered thunderstorms will try to form around 1 to 2 p.m. It will take them about one hour to become severe.

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TUESDAY 1-8 PM: The thunderstorms and main front will race southeast so that by 8 p.m. they will be along and south of I-44. A second front will surge through here Tuesday evening bringing a few non-severe showers and thunderstorms.

There is a window from about 1 to 4 p.m. at locations along and east of I-35 where we could see some severe thunderstorms. If the front is one to two hours faster and/or the thunderstorms take until 2 to 3 p.m. to form, the western edge of the severe threat will shift farther away.

Conversely, if the front is one to two hours slower and/or the thunderstorms form from noon to 2 p.m., the western edge of the severe threat will shift farther west, putting our region at more of a risk of large hail and damaging winds.

There is a trend on some models for the faster solution to be the correct one. We will have to see how it sets up tomorrow morning.

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WEDNESDAY: The storm will be moving through the Midwest putting our region on the western, back edge of the system. This means we will see a partly cloudy sky with north-northwest winds 15-30 mph with highs in the 60s. A few small and brief showers are possible.

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RAINFALL FORECAST TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: The most rain will be tied to where the thunderstorms form. You can see the heaviest rain is from Adrian to Sedalia, Missouri, and points southeast.

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Thursday and Friday we'll see some nice spring weather with highs in the 70s and lows 45-55.

Again, we will see how this looks Tuesday morning.

Have a great week and stay healthy.