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Weather Blog: Two More Days with Rain Chances then Heating Up

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Posted at 12:55 PM, Jul 21, 2020
and last updated 2020-07-21 13:55:46-04

Good Tuesday bloggers,

We are having a second straight rainy, cool July day. Last night some locations that really needed the rain received some nice amounts. We are tracking a small storm system today that will bring a few showers and thunderstorms until it passes the area after 3-4 PM.

RAINFALL THE LAST 24 HOURS:
The bulls eye last night was located around Emporia, KS where over 6" of rain occurred. The rain was needed around Ottawa, KS where many locations saw a nice 1"-2" of rain. It is still dry in Miami county. Most areas around KC saw a new .10" to 1".

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TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY:
What is next? After the scattered showers and thunderstorms end today after 3-4 PM it will be a nice evening.

We have a front that has been stalled to our south. It will become a warm front and lift north tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are possible later tonight along the warm front. As this is happening a new disturbance will track east out of the Rockies into Nebraska. This disturbance will have a cluster of thunderstorms with it tomorrow morning.

There three things that could happen with this disturbance.

1. It will track into our area faster and arrive Wednesday morning, which would decrease the chance of rain during the afternoon and evening.

2. It will track into our region, along the warm front, tomorrow evening. This could lead to a stormy Wednesday evening.

3. It tracks east along I-80 completely missing us, or it falls apart before getting here.

Click on the video below and see what scenario this data shows.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY:
Let's take a look at the upper level flow. The "heat wave creating machine" (upper level high) has been suppressed to the southern USA and is now in the southeast USA. This keeps the door open for fronts and disturbances to move by. This in turn gives the Plains and Midwest daily chances of rain and thunderstorms along with below average temperatures.

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Here is the upper level flow for Thursday. The upper level high is shifting west and will push the rain chances to the northern Plains. So, we will see highs return to 90-95 with lows 75-80 along with little chance of rain. It will be hard to see highs above 95 as the humidity will be so high from the recent rain.

A new cold front arrives early next week so that rain chances increase and highs return to the 80s.

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Have a great rest of your week and stay healthy.