Weather Blog: Unseasonably Cold April weather, Could it lead to Snow in KC?

Posted at 12:28 PM, Apr 16, 2021
and last updated 2021-04-16 14:09:06-04

Good Friday bloggers,

We are in an unseasonably cold April weather pattern. The average high rises from 66 to 68 the next 7 days with average lows 45 to 47. We will be consistently running 10 to 20 degrees below average the next 7 days. We are tracking 3 storm systems and 1 strong cold front.

Let's go through this forecast.

Storm system #1 is going to bring widespread rain to all locations with temperatures 45-50.


The rain will taper to scattered showers with lows 40-45. Total rainfall by 7 AM Saturday will be .10"-.80", most from around KC and points west and south.


We will still be under the influence of the first storm. There will be lots of clouds, some peeks of sun and an increase in scattered showers. There may be a few brief heavy downpours as highs reach 50-55. The scattered showers will decrease after sunset. Saturday night will be mostly cloudy and cool with a few rain showers as lows drop to around 40.


The 2nd system will be moving through during the early morning. This may create an area of rain or scattered showers during the morning. The system will exit during the day leading to a decent Sunday afternoon of weather with highs around 60. The wind will be mostly NW at 5-15 mph all weekend, so we won't be dealing with that weather factor.


There are 2 things to notice. One, you can see a cool pocket in southern Missouri. That is a reflection of the exiting 2nd storm system. Two, you can see the strong cold front entering the northern Plains. Highs are around 70 ahead of it, dropping to the 40s behind it.


OK, this is wild. We will rise to the 60s ahead of the strong cold front, so that by around 1 PM we are around 65 while it is in the 30s across Nebraska. This looks more like February.

So, Monday will be dry with increasing clouds as highs climb to the 60s. The front will sweep across the region during the afternoon, dropping temperatures to the 40s as north winds gust to 30 mph.


The American model (GFS) shown below has been consistent in showing a band of rain changing to snow moving through Monday night (storm system #3). It has been joined by most other major data, the Euro and Canadian.

Now, will it stick? The answer to that question can be found in KC on October 22, 1996. It was 70 on the 21st, followed by rain and 40s during the morning of the 22nd. The afternoon and night of the 22nd we saw heavy snow as temperatures dropped to 32-33. we ended up with 6"-8" of snow on all surfaces. Paved surfaces even had a few inches of snow on them. This was one month after the end of summer.

So, I know it is too late to make a long story short, but the answer is yes, it can stick. If the snow comes down hard enough and long enough and especially at night then all surfaces could get covered. This event is occurring at night which increases the chance of it accumulating as you don't have the influence of the infrared radiation of the sun.

Now, all this being said, it has to snow hard enough and long enough. There was a storm system about a month ago where we thought it could snow, but the temperature had to drop below 36. It stayed rain as the temperatures stayed at 36 or higher.

All the data seems to be a few degrees colder with this, so stay tuned!


Have a great weekend and stay healthy.