Weather Blog - Warmer Air Surges Our Way With More Rain In The Forecast

Posted at 7:52 AM, Mar 18, 2020
and last updated 2020-03-18 10:13:09-04

Good morning bloggers,

Our Spring Into Action Weather Special will be on at 6:30 PM Thursday Night!

It was a wet start to the day, and I have some good news this morning. The rain is moving away, and warmer air is surging our way. Expect a big temperature rise by the end of the day as temperatures rise into the 60s. It will be a good evening to take a walk outside. Yes, walks outdoors are recommended, but keep your social distancing from others as recommended by the CDC (Centers for Disease Control & Prevention). Thursday will likely warm up all the way to 75 degrees on the first day of spring!

This radar map from my RadarScope app, my favorite mobile radar app, showed the heavy rain moving across early this morning. This was at just before 7 AM. This band of rain has moved off, and the rainfall amounts have been around 1/2" with a few spots getting more than that and a few a little less. Here is the rainfall amount from our weather station at 41 Action News, KSHB:

it has been a wet and cloudy beginning to 2020. And, more rain is on the way. This next map shows the flow aloft, around 18,000 feet above us, and this is a forecast for Thursday morning. The 500 mb level is the best level of the atmopshere to track these storm systems that influence our weather. 500 mb is half way up through the atmosphere in weight. The top of the atmosphere has no weight or 0 mb. And, the pressure near the surface is close to 1,000 mb. MB stands for milibars. The pressure near Kansas City is 1,013 mb this morning, for example, or 29.91" of mercury. This is another important number. The average surface pressure around the world is 1,013.25 mb to be exact, or 29.92". So, this morning, we are literally right near the average global surface pressure. It will be falling today as a storm approaches. Okay, I got distracted with some meteorology. Here is the 500 mb forecast valid Thursday morning:

There is one upper level disturbance that will track overhead early Thursday, and the main storm will track to the northwest of KC near Denver. This is going to produce a blizzard:

This is a very strong storm. For KC, it means another round of rain, and possibly a morning thunderstorm Thursday, and then a huge warm up to 75 degrees tomorrow. For western Nebraska it means a blizzard and possibly a foot of snow. This will also produce severe weather with a tornado risk today over the plains:

This risk of severe weather does not include KC. We are in, what is called, a marginal risk, and this most often means there may be a few thunderstorms. So, we will monitor this later tonight as the thunderstorms develop in the risk area and then track our way. A marginal risk still implies a severe thunderstorm or two is possible. Hail would be the main risk early Thursday, with another slim possibility way up north early Thursday evening as well.

Rainbow, the big weather puppy, and Sunny The Weather Dog teach us unconditional love every day. We all could use a lot of this right now while we go through this health crisis together. Look at how big Rainbow has gotten. She is actually almost fully grown and almost 9 months old. She is now a bit bigger than Sunny.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Mostly cloudy with the rain ending by 10 AM. There is a slight chance of showers this afternoon and some sunshine is possible later in the day. Southeast winds 10-20 mph will help bring up some warmer air. High: 65° and this may happen closer to sunset.
  • Tonight: Partly cloudy with temperatures staying near 60 degrees. The chance of rain will increase to 100% by 5 AM. A few heavy thunderstorms are possible early on Thursday with some hail possible in the stronger thunderstorms.
  • Thursday: Windy and warmer! There is a 100% chance of rain early with a possible thunderstorm. The rain will end with sunshine blasting out. High: 75°
  • Friday: Much colder and windy with a chance of a few snowflakes. High: 41, low Saturday morning: 24°

We hope everyone has a great day. Try to find some time to get a walk in as temperatures warm up to around 65 degrees near the end of the day.