Weather Blog - Warmer, Windy, & Severe Weather Risks Miss KC Again

Tornado Near Childress Texas
Posted at 7:45 AM, Apr 26, 2021
and last updated 2021-04-26 09:35:41-04

Good morning bloggers,

It has been nearly two years since Kansas City has been in a Tornado Watch. The last Tornado Watch was issued on May 28, 2019, the day that an EF-4 Tornado with nearly 200 mph winds tracked across Douglas and Leavenworth counties, just southwest of KC. There has not been a serious risk of tornadoes since that day. There were a few small tornadoes, however, with a few tornado warnings. Those small tornadoes can happen when there is no tornado watch. But, overall, there has not been a serious set up and risk in our area, and this week will likely see another system go by with the risks missing our area. We will be monitoring this closely in case it sets up a bit differently. Let's take a look.

Tornado Watches In 2020:

Tornado Watches Last Year (All of 2020)

As you can see above there were no tornado watches over most of Kansas and, amazingly, the northwest third of Oklahoma as well. Tornado Alley was almost entirely missed last year. Tornado Alley extends from Texas, across Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa. Look how there were only a few watches of the entire region, missing Wichita and Kansas City.

Tornado Watches So Far This Year:

Tornado Watches in 2021 So Far

As you can see above, there has yet to be a tornado watch in Kansas this year! Wow!

Tornado Caught On Camera by Mikey Gribble (41 Action News Storm Chaser):

Tornado Near Childress Texas

This tornado was witnessed and videotaped by 41 Action News Storm Chaser Mikey Gribble. It happened last week near Childress, TX. This is an area that has been quiet as well, until late last week.

30-Year Average Severe Weather Risks For April 26

Severe Weather Probabilities On April 26 (30 Year Average)

We are currently on this long two year stretch of no major risks. Okay, so I have established that. The risks above show the 30-year averages for April 26th. In fact, on this date in history was one of the worst tornado days in Kansas and Oklahoma history. It was the date of the Andover, KS EF-5 tornado, and there were others that day in Oklahoma that stayed out over open fields, thank goodness. This happened on April 26, 1991.

Let's look at the current set-ups for this week:

Surface Forecast Valid 7 PM Today

The black lines are called isobars, or lines of equal pressure. The closer the lines are together, the stronger the wind speeds. This surface forecast shows a strong low pressure area developing over eastern Colorado later today.

7 AM Current Conditions

The winds are gusting to 40 mph or higher already today. This wind will continue into Tuesday.

Surface Forecast Valid 7 PM Tuesday

The surface set-up for Tuesday is a bit more organized and the severe weather risks will be increasing.

Severe Weather Outlook Tuesday - Tuesday night
Tornado Risk Tuesday - Tuesday night

The risk of severe weather appears that it will stay southwest of our local region. By Wednesday, the storm is finally forecast to move out and shift east. This is when Kansas City has its best chance of rain and thunderstorms, but right now the Storm Prediction Center does not have us in any significant risk of severe weather.

Surface Forecast Valid 7 PM Wednesday

We will be monitoring this closely. Right now, just get ready for today's wind and warmth. Expect a high of 86 degrees with south to southwest winds 20-40 mph and gusty.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Gabbing With Gary blog. Have a great start to the week and we will go in-depth with Kansas City's Most Accurate Forecast on 41 Action News today and tonight!