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Weather Blog: We Need the Rain, not Severe Weather

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Posted at 8:37 AM, Jun 21, 2020
and last updated 2020-06-21 09:37:26-04

Happy Father's Day bloggers,

June has 10 days left and we are sitting at the third driest June in recorded history. This has occurred not for a lack of rain chances. We have been repeatedly receiving the minimum amounts with each event or getting missed. We have another thunderstorm chance tonight. Will we get missed again? Maybe, in this case, we want to get missed as there is a threat of severe weather.

Let's go through this.

There is an enhanced slight risk (3 of 5) of severe weather for mostly central/western Kansas to northern Oklahoma and north to eastern Nebraska. A slight risk (2 of 5) extends east into our area. The main threat with this event is damaging wind.

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FATHER'S DAY 4 PM: It will be hot and humid here with highs around 90. A south breeze at 10-25 mph will help a bit. We will see a line of thunderstorms forming from northwest Kansas to northern Iowa. Once they form they will head southeast.

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FATHER'S DAY 4-8 PM: Here we go again. The data still shows the thunderstorms forming into two areas which split around our region. The bow like formations are where you can get damaging winds and possibly brief, small tornadoes.

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SUNDAY NIGHT 8 PM-MIDNIGHT: Take a look at the cluster of thunderstorms in northern Oklahoma. This looks vicious with a well formed bow echo structure. There is also a significant area of thunderstorms in southern Iowa extending west to southern Nebraska and northern Illinois.

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MONDAY MIDNIGHT- 8 AM: The thunderstorms in Iowa moved east and fell apart. The big thunderstorms in Oklahoma dropped south. The disturbance causing the thunderstorms tracked across southeast Kansas ending up in central Missouri by 8 AM. This has some rain and thunderstorms with it, but it went around our area. A cold front is also approaching. Could that bring rain?

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MONDAY: The front moves through during the morning and since there was so much thunderstorm activity during the night, the atmosphere is more stable. Also, the morning is more stable anyway. So, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible around the front, but at this time it does not look like anything organized. More organized thunderstorms may form on the front along I-44. Our highs will be in the 80s as winds become northwest at 5-15 mph.

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MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: Whether we miss the rain or not we will get a benefit from the cold front. It will be cooler and less humid Tuesday with no rain. Lows will be 60-65 with highs in the 70s.

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RAINFALL FORECAST TODAY-TUESDAY: So, here it is. You can see we're well into an area of least rain. And were are in an area with the least in the least area with a forecast amount of 0.01". The most rain occurs across central Kansas to Oklahoma, Iowa, Illinois to the Tennessee Valley.

Can this change? Absolutely, but not only has the data been consistent, this is what has been happening the last several weeks. This is why we are sitting at the third driest June ever recorded. Maybe we want to miss the heaviest rain as it would come attached with a chance of seeing damaging winds.

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Are there any more rain chances after Monday? The answer is yes here as well. Wednesday-Saturday will see daily chances of thunderstorms, but the data in as of early Sunday has trended away from our area seeing much rain.

Keep an eye to the sky this evening and tonight and to 41 Action News and we'll keep you advised.

Happy Father's day! Have a great week ahead, stay healthy.