Weather Blog: Weather "No Mans Land"

Posted at 8:30 AM, May 16, 2020
and last updated 2020-05-16 09:30:04-04

Good Saturday bloggers,

We have a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms today as we track two systems and a cold front. You can see the upper level flow below, there is a storm system in South Dakota and one in Texas. We are in between them and so we are in weather "No Mans Land". So, we do have a chance of rain, but any showers and thunderstorms will be scattered around.

If your yard or farm needs rain and gets missed today, you may need to water. We have a change in the weather pattern as we head into next week. It is called an "Omega Block" because the upper level flow takes the shape of the Greek letter omega. A storm system will drop into the western USA from the Pacific Ocean and the two storm systems in the Plains today will combine into one upper level low in the eastern USA. And once it sets up it stays for 3-7 days, hence a block. So, what does that mean for our area? If your region is near the upper level lows you can expect several days of rain. If your region is near the upper level ridge you can get several days of nice weather. Our region is near the ridge, so after today rain chances go to near zero for several days.

The block will break down at the end of next week and weekend. The trough in the western USA will open up and head east. This will increase rain and thunderstorm chances around here by next Friday or Saturday. Once the chances begin, they could be around for several days in a row. But, that is a week away, so let's go through our forecast the next 3 days which includes the last rain chance for about a week.

SATURDAY: This is a map for 7 PM and you can see a cold front approaching. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of and along the front. The best chances of rain today will be 4 PM to 10 PM. The severe threat is very low. Some thunderstorms could contain small hail. If you get a thunderstorm you could receive a quick .25" to 1". Otherwise, amounts will be none to trace-.25". Highs will be mostly in the low to mid 70s.

SUNDAY MORNING: The rain will become more widespread as it moves into eastern Missouri. We will be partly cloudy, breezy and cool with lows in the 50s.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: This will be the first day of about 5-6 days in a row of nice spring weather. It will be partly cloudy, breezy and mild with highs around 70. The wind will be northwest at 15-25 mph.

MONDAY: You can see the storm forming in the eastern USA and the storm entering the west coast of the USA. In between you can see a large area of sunny weather. This is moving towards our area. We will be on the western edge of clouds Monday with highs 65-70. The wind will be north-northwest 5-15 mph. Also, look at the swirl of rain and thunderstorms on the coast of North Carolina. This may become the first tropical system of the season, Arthur. If it does not become a tropical system, it may combine with the upper low in the eastern USA to bring widespread heavy rain.

The weather will be dry through next Thursday-Friday with highs mostly in the 70s and lows mostly in the 50s. Early in the week lows may drop to the 40s and by the end of the week highs may reach the low 80s.

Have a great weekend and stay healthy.