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Weather Blog: Weather Pattern Change for Father's Day Weekend

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Posted at 12:23 PM, Jun 15, 2020
and last updated 2020-06-15 13:23:53-04

Good Monday bloggers,

We have been stuck in this hot and dry weather pattern for several days and it has allowed us to drop to around 2" below average for the month of June.

We have also slipped to over 1" below average for 2020. This time of year with high sun angle, higher temperature and longer days it dries out fast. Also, on average, May and June are the wettest months of the year, so it is hard to keep rain out of the forecast. There are changes showing up and keeping rain out of the forecast will become much more of a challenge. Let's go through this.

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The reason for our hot and dry weather has been an upper level ridge located in the middle of the USA.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW MONDAY: You can see the ridge centered in our region with an upper level low over the southeast USA. A large trough is located over the western USA and it is this trough that will move east and change our weather.

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UPPER LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY: The ridge is shifting east and falling apart. The western trough extends from central Canada to the Rockies. This will generate thunderstorms from western Kansas to the Dakotas. Some may make it here on Friday.

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UPPER LEVEL FLOW FATHER'S DAY: Now we are being influenced by the opposite of a ridge, a trough. The western trough has now moved into the middle of the USA. The ridge has been squashed to northern Mexico.

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WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? There will be areas of rain and thunderstorms every day in a large area of the Plains and Midwest, Thursday through the weekend. Now, it will not rain in every location every day. And the rain events will likely not last all day in the locations they are affecting. But, by the end of the weekend most locations will receive .50"-2" of rain with some seeing much more. The areas that see the heaviest rain will need to be determined on a one day at a time basis as it depends on where fronts set up.

The second rain area on the east coast is due to a very slow moving system that is now in the southeast USA. Flooding may become a big problem along the east coast. Anytime you have thunderstorms this time of year, even if it has been dry, you can get flash flooding as rainfall rates can be 2"-3" per hour.

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Before we get to the more active pattern it will stay mostly hot and dry. Let's look at the next couple of days.

MONDAY, WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY: These days will be pretty much the same. Partly to mostly sunny, hot and humid with highs in the low 90s and lows around 70. The cooler and more comfortable air will be stuck from eastern sections of Iowa and Missouri and points east. We left out Tuesday. Why? See below.

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TUESDAY: The front gets a little closer and a weak disturbance wanders through the ridge. This will open the door for a few, small and brief showers and thunderstorms. If you get one, you could see a quick .05" to .25". Most locations will be dry. Highs will be a few degrees cooler with highs around 90. Temperatures will drop to the 70s for a short time if you get a brief downpour. But, it will make it even more humid

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Have a great rest of your week. Stay cool and healthy.