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KSHB 41 Weather Blog | Kansas City's shifting weather pattern

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Posted at 3:09 PM, Aug 14, 2023

Good Monday bloggers,

What a stormy day we had on Sunday. This was the finale to a very active weather pattern that began during the first few days of July. The active pattern followed an anomalously dry May and June.

We are looking at a drier and warmer period. How long will it last? How hot will it get? Let's go through all of this.

RAINFALL SINCE JUNE 30TH:
These are radar and satellite estimated rainfall totals, so your rain gauge may read different. After Sunday, the disparity in rainfall from south to north across KC was exaggerated. The average rainfall since June 30th is around 6.20". So, most locations were above average, but north of the river amounts were pushing 200% or more of average with rainfall totals around a foot, give or take 1-3" of rain.

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Rainfall across northern Missouri was ridiculous in some locations. Rainfall amounts of 10"-20" were common. If it wasn't for the very dry May and June and drought conditions flooding would have been much worse. This may have been too much of a good thing, but it was better than no or little rain.

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The amazing rainfall amounts continued into central Missouri with some locations seeing nearly two feet of rain.

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When you look at the big picture you can see there was a northwest-southeast zone that saw the most widespread heavy totals. This was mostly due to countless thunderstorm complexes running along the eastern and northeast edge of the heat. Then, the last 10 days we saw the heat retreat and it was replaced by bigger non-August like storm systems and cold fronts.

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UPPER LEVEL FLOW:

TODAY:
A storm system is tracking through the Great Lakes which has brought a refreshing airmass in to our area. The heat wave creating machine (upper level high) is weak and relegated to the far south and western parts of the USA.

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WEDNESDAY:
The upper level high is growing in size and shifting a bit east. This keeps our area in northwest flow which will bring in a weak cold front. There will not be enough moisture for thunderstorms.

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SUNDAY:
Uh oh! The upper level high grows in size, increases in coverage and shifts to right over head. Yes, this means we are in for hot weather and no rain. The western USA will be in south flow aloft. This will enhance the summer monsoon increasing rain chances. The rain could be enhanced even more if moisture is tapped from a Pacific hurricane. Interesting to see how that sets up.

The good news is that the big upper level high should retreat at the end of next week, so we are looking at 3-5 days where we may make a run at 100°.

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DAILY FORECAST:

TONIGHT:
Let's enjoy the much cooler than average temperatures. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 50s.

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TUESDAY:
The weather will be terrific with highs in the mid to upper 70s with less wind and more sun than Monday.

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WEDNESDAY:
We will see highs closer to average with highs in the mid 80s. The 90s are creeping back into the western Plains. But, a cold front is heading southeast from the northern Plains.

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THURSDAY:
The front slips through and pushes the building high heat south. Our highs will be in the mid 80s again. But, you can see the front is stalling and becoming a warm front.

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FRIDAY:
We are still hanging on to the 80s as the 90s and 100s creep north and east.

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SATURDAY:
The party is over as we see highs in the low to mid 90s. The 100s are on our doorstep with the 80s pushing east.

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SUNDAY:
This is the first day where we have a legitimate chance to reach 100°.

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Two more quick things.

  1. Rain chances will be near zero despite the cold then warm front. There is not enough upper level support or enough moisture to create thunderstorms. This leads me to point two.
  2. The humidity levels may not get out of control and be more moderate. That being said, there is a lot of water in the ground and this may change the equation. Even if the humidity is higher, the most thunderstorms that would be produced by the fronts would be isolated, small and brief.

Have a great week and stay healthy.