Weather Blog: Wednesday Afternoon Update, Still on the Edge

Posted at 2:29 PM, Apr 22, 2020
and last updated 2020-04-22 15:29:18-04

Good Wednesday afternoon bloggers,

Trying to forecast the weather around here is never easy, but when you are on the edge of a storm, it makes it another level tougher. We are tracking two storm systems, one today and one for Friday. We are on the edge of both. Let's go through this.

Here is a radar image from 1:30 PM Wednesday. The most widespread rain and thunderstorms is located over northeast Oklahoma, Arkansas and southern Missouri. There is large area of scattered rain across much of Kansas and west central Missouri. The main part of the storm is clearly going to our south. But, there are disorganized smaller systems north of the main storm creating the scattered rain. It looks like these areas will drift across the region this afternoon and tonight.


WEDNESDAY 5 PM: This data shows the main rain across southeast Kansas and southern Missouri. You can see lighter rain up to the I-70 corridor, possibly up to highway 36. The scattered areas may consolidate into a larger area of light rain and combine with the main storm. So, from around I-70 and points south rain is likely this afternoon and evening, but amounts may not be that heavy. A thin band of heavier downpours, not shown here, may form in the larger area of light rain. If that happens a few locations could see much heavier totals.


THURSDAY: The storm will exit around midnight tonight. Thursday will start with clouds, but it will end up being a nice day as the sun breaks out. Highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. The faster the clouds clear, the warmer your location will be. The next system is entering the Plains by Thursday afternoon and evening.


THURSDAY NIGHT: A lead disturbance, ahead of the developing main system, will move through Thursday night bringing a chance of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.


FRIDAY: The second storm moves through and here we go again. We are on the edge. You can see how a shift south or north by 50 miles will make a huge difference for those of us along the I-70 corridor. Highs will be in the 60s. This is a map of noon Friday.


RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: This is the latest data on the total rainfall the next 2 days. Amounts range from .05" at Maryville, MO to 3" in Lee's Summit, MO. So, you can see how trying to forecast on the edge is a challenge as small shifts can make a huge difference on how much rain will fall on your yard or farm. Now, if you live in northern Missouri a small shift has little impact as amounts will be light in any case. Conversely, a small shift south of KC will not make a huge difference as amounts will be heavy in any case.


The bottom line is that we will see areas of rain today with a few small heavier pockets. Thursday is a nice day followed by a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday. The storm on Friday has a slight chance of tracking farther north.

The weekend looks mostly nice with highs in the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 50s. A small system may bring a few showers and thunderstorms Saturday night.

Have a great rest of your week and stay healthy.