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Weather Blog: Weekend Forecast Challenges

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Posted at 1:07 PM, May 29, 2020
and last updated 2020-05-29 14:07:52-04

Good Friday bloggers,

Today is a 180° turn from Thursday. It is about as nice as it gets around here today. Highs are in the 70s, with a light wind and low humidity. So, the "Eat Outside Index" is a 10 as opposed to the 0 of Thursday.

There are a myriad of river, creek and stream flood warnings after all of the rain from the last week. This is not like last year as the water levels are not as high and the weather pattern will allow the water levels to drop. Yes, there is rain in the forecast, but not as widespread and heavy as the last 7 days. We still need to watch this as anytime you have rain chances and it is, on average, the wettest time of year, the rain can get out of control.

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The other thing that can get out of control is the grass growing rate. After all the rain, and now the sunshine, you can hear the grass grow. We have several good mowing days. Today is good if your yard is not a swamp like mine. Saturday we have in the maybe category as well, but most of the day is likely dry and the best rain chance appears to be northern Missouri. Sunday through Tuesday will see good mowing days, especially Monday and Tuesday.

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Warmer and more humid air will be arriving by Monday. In the process of that air replacing our current air mass this weekend, it will provide some forecast challenges. Let's go through this.

SATURDAY 5 PM: Take a look at these forecast temperatures for Saturday at 5 PM. 95° at Dodge City to 59° at St. Joseph. We are on the edge of the cool air. What is going on?

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SATURDAY MORNING: A warm front will be setting up from southwest Nebraska to southeast Kansas. A disturbance will be tracking through Nebraska producing an area of rain and thunderstorms north of the warm front. The rain is also caused by the warm front. We will have a nice morning with lows 55-60. By 7 AM our temperature will be rising to 60-65.

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SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: The rain and thunderstorms will be weakening, but should hold together as they track into northern Missouri. Clouds will thicken up regardless of the rain. So, this will hold temperatures down. It will be 55-60 in rain areas, 65-70 in cloud areas with no rain and in the 70s where it is partly cloudy. Some locations may rise to 70 early in the afternoon before dropping back down. It will be in the 80s and 90s about 100 miles to the southwest. You can see the forecast challenges for our area. How much clouds and rain will move in during the afternoon and where will they track? The answers to these questions will make a huge difference on how you experience the weather on Saturday. This is going to be a tough call until tomorrow as the models are all over the place.

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SUNDAY: The warm front will still be to our southwest during the morning. So it will start cloudy and there may be a few showers and thunderstorms. The warm front will be very close Sunday afternoon, so we should see some sun with highs in the 70s. If the warm front is slower, then Sunday will see highs 65-70 under a cloudy sky all day. There could even be a few showers and thunderstorms all day and even drizzle. We lean with the former.

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Have a great weekend and stay healthy.