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Weather Blog | Weekend rainstorm update

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Posted at 8:19 AM, Feb 03, 2024

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are tracking a large storm with copious amounts of moisture. It is producing a large area of rain from Colorado to the Gulf coast. And yes, it is mostly rain as it is too warm for snow and ice just about everywhere. It was even raining in Denver and the surrounding foothills this morning. That is quite odd for this time of year.

The storm system was located over the southwest Plains Saturday morning. It will drift east a bit before tracking southeast. This means the main rain band will move north and east to a point and then shift south. And, of course, the "point" is right around KC. This makes our rainfall forecast a tough one.

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Let's go through this.

TODAY (NOW-3 P.M.):
Areas of dense fog, mainly from around I-70 and north will lift this morning. The main rain will be about 50 miles southwest of KC. There will be periods of scattered showers from the main rain to KC. So, it will be a mostly cloudy day with highs back to the 50s along with a few showers. It will be breezy with an east wind 15-25 mph.

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TODAY-TONIGHT (3-9 P.M.):
The main rain band will make a move north right to near KC. You can see how we are living on the edge of the main rain. That north edge could be where the map shows, and it could be 20-30 miles north or south from what it shows. Temperatures will be 45°-50° in all areas with an east wind 10-20 mph.

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TONIGHT-SUNDAY (3-9 A.M.):
The main rain will shift to northern Missouri, but it will weaken. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s with a northeast wind 10-20 mph. The average high for Sunday is 40°, so even though it will feel colder, temperatures will still be at average high temperature levels.

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SUNDAY MORNING:
The rain will end from east to west with temperatures in the 40s and a northeast wind 10-20 mph. Yes, ending from east to west is not a typo. The flow around storm systems in the Northern Hemisphere is counter-clockwise. Since, the main upper low is located in the southern Plains, we are on the northern side of the storm, therefore the rain here is tracking from east to west.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON:
The rain will be mostly over as the clouds remain. Highs will be 45°-50° with a northeast breeze 10-20 mph.

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SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY:
Lows will be in the mid 30s Sunday night. Monday will see increasing sunshine with highs in the 50s and a light wind. Yes, it will become a nice day. We do not expect any black ice Monday morning.

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RAINFALL FORECAST:
Rainfall will range from a trace-.10" or nothing northeast of KC to almost 2" southwest of KC. KC is on the edge, so amounts will range from .25"-.50" around Liberty to 1" in Olathe. Since we are on the edge, a shift of 20-30 miles north or south will make a huge difference in the rainfall that falls on your yard or farm.

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Fortunately, most locations have received good rainfall and melted snow the last 90 days. The average rainfall since Nov. 5 is 4"-5". Most locations have seen around 200% of the average. Even, the drier locations of northern Missouri are at about 100% of average.

If you want some rain and miss this storm, the next chance of a widespread rain is around Superbowl Sunday. We will have more on that in the coming days.

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Here is a weekend forecast summary.

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Have a great weekend.
Stay healthy.