Weather Blog - Wet storm approaches Kansas City

Surface Forecast Valid 7 AM Tuesday
Posted at 7:55 AM, May 23, 2022
and last updated 2022-05-23 09:42:04-04

Good morning bloggers,

The weather looks great for Memorial Day weekend! Between now and then we have a wet storm to deal with.

Here is one of the rainfall predictions ending Wednesday. This is the latest NAM model forecast showing 1/4" to 5" of rain. Yes, we have another challenging forecast on predicting amounts. Tonight, on KSHB, I will show how incredibly difficult this would be if it were a snow forecast.

Rainfall Forecast

The storm approaching KC looks different on each model run. It fits the LRC perfectly, and is right on schedule and it is going to rain. The amounts will likely vary significantly from location to location. If 5" of rain does fall in a few spots, more likely west of the state line, then there will be some flooding.

The storm system approaching will produce a warm front way south of KC. This will place us in the cooler air and protect us from having any severe weather risk. Some flooding and lightning are still possible as this system approaches tomorrow and passes to the east by Thursday.

Surface Forecast Valid 7 AM Tuesday

There are still some questions as to where the heaviest rain will fall and we will discuss on KSHB 41 tonight.

Severe Weather Risk Tuesday:

Severe Risk Tuesday

As many of you have been tracking this with us, we have not had a Tornado Watch for two of our counties since May 28, 2019, and only one watch late last year, in this year's LRC, in Platte, Clay, and Jackson counties. Johnson and Wyandotte counties have now almost completed three straight years without a Tornado Watch, which is an incredible record.

This next storm will not produce a risk in our area, as you can see above. The level 1 and 2 risks are far to the south. So, this streak will almost certainly last into June completing three straight years without a serious tornado threat in our area.

Now, there have been a few tornado warnings including a couple of small tornadoes, one in Johnson county a year ago. That happened in what was not a very favorable environment for tornadoes, thus why there was no watch before the warning.

We just had another LRC accurate prediction verify. The Colorado snowstorm was predicted by the LRC two months before as you can see below:

Colorado Storm Predicted

This pattern will continue through September until a new pattern evolves this fall.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Mostly sunny and nearly perfect. Light winds with increasing clouds later in the day. High: 69°
  • Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a 90% chance of rain by sunrise. Low: 57°
  • Tuesday: Cloudy with a 100% chance of rain. Rainfall amounts of 1/2" to 3" of rain possible. High: 59°

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience and spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog.

Have a great start to the week,