UPDATE:
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our risk of severe weather. As far as we are concerned, very little has changed. Damaging winds and flash flooding are the main threats.
We are now in a level 3 of 5 risk for severe weather tonight. This is also known as an Enhanced Slight Risk.
The severe weather risk can be broken down into the chance for a specific severe weather threat. Each map shows the chance of seeing the particular severe weather threat within 25 miles of a point.
TORNADO THREAT:
We are still in a 2% chance of seeing a tornado within 25 miles of a point. The change is that they expanded the threat farther east, including more of our area. Any tornado around here would most likely be brief and small and embedded in the main line.
DAMAGING WIND THREAT:
We are now in a 30% chance of seeing damaging winds within 25 miles of a point. This is still the main threat.
HAIL THREAT:
We are still in a 15% chance of seeing hail 1" in diameter or higher within 25 miles of a point. This threat was upgraded to a 30% west of Topeka to Salina, KS. This may be a bit high as the damaging wind and flooding threat are the highest.
Flooding kills more people per year than tornadoes and lightning. 6" of flowing water can float an SUV. "Turn Around Don't Drown."
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Good Saturday bloggers,
We are still monitoring the chance of severe weather tonight. Thunderstorms will form in western and central Kansas around 4-6 PM. They will evolve and move east.
If you have outdoor plans today and this evening it looks mostly dry until 9 PM. After 9 PM a few smaller showers and thunderstorms could form ahead of the main show that arrives after 10-11 PM. The Royals should get their game in tonight. It is a good thing they start at 6:10 PM instead of 7:10 PM.
Here is a Powercast image of midnight. This is when we will be seeing the brunt of the thunderstorms in KC.
We are in a level 2 of 5 risk for severe weather tonight. This is also known as a slight risk.
The severe weather risk can be broken down into the chance for a specific severe weather threat. Each map shows the chance of seeing the particular severe weather threat within 25 miles of a point.
TORNADO THREAT:
We are on the edge of a 2% chance of seeing a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Any tornado around here would most likely be brief and small and embedded in the main line.
DAMAGING WIND THREAT:
We are in a 15% chance of seeing damaging winds within 25 miles of a point.
HAIL THREAT:
We are in a 15% chance of seeing hail 1" in diameter or higher within 25 miles of a point. This may be a bit high as the damaging wind and flooding threat are the highest.
Flooding kills more people per year than tornadoes and lightning. 6" of flowing water can float an SUV. "Turn Around Don't Drown."
The 7 minute video below details our severe weather threat and Mother's Day forecast.
Be weather aware, have a great weekend and stay healthy.
