KANSAS CITY, Mo. — New projections from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation have the COVID-19 peak in Kansas and Missouri arriving in late April.
The model, which assumes social-distancing measures will remain in place through the end of May, projects that the pandemic will peak April 28 in Missouri with an average of more than 50 deaths per day in the state at that time.
The institute currently projects more than 1,700 people in Missouri will die from COVID-19 complications.
But if social distancing remains in place through the end of May, the model projects no new deaths after mid-June.
Based on the IHME’s data, Missouri has enough hospital beds and ICU beds to handle the outbreak’s peak and will require nearly 400 ventilators.
The peak in Kansas will arrive one day later, April 29, according to the model, with an average of more than 15 deaths per day during the final days of April and into early May.
The IHME projects more than 550 deaths in Kansas, but does not project a shortage in hospital beds or ICU beds in the state.
More than 120 ventilators will be needed at the peak, according to the IHME analysis.
The model assumes additional business closures or travel restrictions by the end of the week in both states. If such measures aren’t enacted, the IHME projections could shift again.
Nationally, the peak has passed, according to projections. It was Monday.