KSHB 41 reporter Ryan Gamboa covers Miami County in Kansas and Cass County in Missouri. He also covers agricultural topics. Share your story idea with Ryan.
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This Labor Day holiday, Americans will soak up what's left of summer, gathering for cookouts or a bite to eat around town.
But August data from the United States Department of Agriculture suggests there's minimal relief at the grocery store.
"I have seen a fall in prices," said Kansas City shopper George Alyea.
That feeling of relief depends on who you ask.
"I'm spending a lot of money on groceries, I can tell you that," Ruth Evans told KSHB 41. "I don’t recall feeling any relief, budget-wise, at all."
The USDA Economic Research Service's Food Price Outlook for August 2025 forecast essentially states food inflation in the U.S. has slowed down compared to years past.
Food inflation is up 2.9% year-over-year, meaning all food prices are rising just slightly faster than the overall prices in the economy. That increase sits just about the 20-year historical average.
The USDA is expecting food price inflation to be "normal" rather than spiking in 2022 (+9.9%).
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Grocery prices have steadied at +2.2% and sit lower than the historical grocery average, suggesting grocery prices will be relatively stable or slow rising.
However, eating out is above the historical average, at +3.9%. Ongoing labor costs, rent and supply expenses for restaurants will keep menu prices climbing faster than grocery prices.
"We’re spending more time inside, for sure. Kind of doing less out and about," said Rachel Wurzer, another Kansas City-area shopper. "This Labor Day weekend, I feel like we did less out and about with friends and did a lot more at home, kind of save money where we can."
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Wurzer told KSHB 41 she's not feeling much relief at the grocery store. Often, she spends her time searching for the best deals at different stores on multiple nights of the week.
"I’m shopping for groceries more days a week," she said. "I just think we’re spreading it out just to make the most of our time. We’re kind of getting some things on one day and going another day at another store."
She shops for her produce at one location and non-perishable food items at a big box grocery store.
Ruth Evans shops for one in her house, often making a trip to the grocery store every few weeks.
"I’m thinking about every single thing I put in the basket. If it seems like it’s a little extravagant, I put it back," she said.
Evans isn't spending her time eating out; rather, she's making it count in her kitchen. A small cut to the grocery bill, about 10-15%, would keep her from feeling the pinch.
"I know the farmers; they have to make a living, too. We find a way," Evans said.
The USDA reports, historically, food prices rise between 2-3% most years.
In the agricultural sector, weather, disease and global trade disruptions can impact prices.
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Meteorological trends in the past five years have continued to impact the cattle industry.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) suggests farm-level cattle will rise throughout 2025 — consumers should expect continued price increases through winter, and restaurant steak and burgers could cost more.
This is in part due to cattle ranchers' diminishing herds during past drought years and the retail beef market remaining strong.
Wholesale beef is predicted to maintain a steady incline, which could affect supermarket beef, fast food and restaurant beef dishes in the coming months.
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While egg prices have decreased dramatically following heavy bird flu outbreaks across the nation, market price volatility remains high in PPI, as the holiday baking season could increase demand and uncertainty with disease.
George Alyea told KSHB 41 he's attributing his relief at the supermarket to changes made in the new administration with the prioritization of increasing energy supply.
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"The administration has opened up new drilling, and I believe that is trickling down," Alyea said. "Farmers are, they use fuel, they have to pass that fuel price on. So I believe that’s helping move prices down."
About a year ago, Alyea would spend $120 on his routine grocery trip. That same trip is now down between $90 and $100.
"You just sort of adopted ways to get around it and save it as much as you can," he said. "Because it wasn’t only here at the store. Everywhere we went in this world, prices went up."
He attributes some of his relief to spending habits, by taking advantage of grocery store ad specials, including buying less name-brand products.
"That’s a way you can trim 5-10 bucks off each visit," Alyea said. "Planters' whole cashews were $8.59 in there. They had a sale for Best Choice whole cashews right next to it for $6.39. Well, I went $6.39. I saved about $2.40"
As new price data rolls out in September, shoppers will continue to have a better understanding of how to adapt.
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