KANSAS CITY, Mo. — We are tracking a volatile day of weather as a cold front approaches from the northwest and interacts with a very warm and humid airmass.
Thunderstorms will rapidly form along the cold front between 2 and 4 p.m. Before a line forms, any storms that form ahead of the main frontal zone will have the highest tornado threat. The atmosphere is not totally set up for tornadoes, but all it takes is one tornadic thunderstorm to be a major problem.
SEVERE THREATS:
Large hail and damaging wind are the main threats. The graphic below from the National Weather Service says it best.
TORNADO THREAT:
5-9% chance of seeing a tornado up to EF3 within 25 miles of a point. "Up to" does not mean all tornadoes that form will be EF3, it just means that is the most likely upper limit of strength.
DAMAGING WIND:
30-44% (45-59% southeast of KC) to see damaging wind up to 75-85 mph within 25 miles of a point. "Up to" does not mean all high winds that form will be 75-85 mph, it just means that is the most likely upper limit of strength.
HAIL:
30-44% chance to see hail up to 2"-3.5" in diameter. "Up to" does not mean all hail that forms will be 2"-3.5" in diameter, it just means that is the most likely upper limit of size.
FLOODING:
There is a Flood Watch in effect for flooding/flash flooding. Rainfall rates will be 1-2" per hour, so any zone where more than one thunderstorm tracks over the same area could cause flash flooding. Some locations may see under .50" of rain while others may see 2"-4" of rain in a short time.
The ground can absorb less water due to recent rainfall. Flooding kills more people per year than tornadoes and lightning. 6"-12" of flowing water can float an SUV. If you see flowing water over the road. "Turn Around Don't Drown."
TIMING:
Thunderstorms will form in a zone along and south of the front rapidly between 2 and 4 p.m. This zone will shift south and approach Interstate 44 between 8 and 10 p.m., so, the main threat for severe weather in Kansas City is between 2 and 7 p.m.
Stay with KSHB41 and we'll keep you advised.
Have a great weekend,
Stay healthy
