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KSHB 41 Weather Blog | A breakdown on Tuesday's severe weather outlook

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Posted at 6:00 AM, May 21, 2024

Good Tuesday morning blog readers —

We've got another round of severe storms brewing today, with all modes of severe weather possible, let's get to it!

We've got another line of storms, but this time they will form between Maryville and Atchison and move southeast fast.

Some models even have this barely clipping the Kansas City area and not developing fully until they are in line with Marshall to Butler.

Large hail, damaging wind and quick spin up EF-0 to EF-1 tornadoes are possible.

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Tuesday Morning (8 a.m. to 12 p.m.)

There is a chance for some storms north near the Iowa border this morning.

These storms could be low end severe and the bigger concern is we could see some heavy rain pockets bring flooding concerns from Maryville to Chillicothe.

Much of this action will be driven by the warm front through Iowa, and most of the action will stay in Iowa.

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Tuesday Afternoon-Evening (3 p.m. to 9 p.m.)

This is our bigger time frame for severe weather. We will watch a line of storms form along the cold front starting out near Maryville by 3 to 4 p.m.

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As this line develops, large hail will be a threat alongside gusty winds. The SPC has a significant hail hatch for north central Missouri where 2-inch hail is possible.

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As this line continues to develop, it could move right through the Kansas City area or just east of the area.

The timing looks to hit by 5 to 6 p.m., so that means we could be talking about a weather delay for the Royals game.

The key here is, how close to the Kansas City area core will this line be? How much lightning will be close? Etc.

Overall there is still some uncertainty on the track of this line as some models bring it north to southeast closer to Marshall than Kansas City.

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As this line matures, we will watch for the possibility of quick spin up tornadoes.

Just like Sunday night, this line of storms will be capable of producing EF 0 to EF 1 style quick spin up tornadoes.

These are usually short lived but pack a wind punch of 85 to 110 mph.

The larger threat for tornadoes will be into Iowa where the triple point is.

In Kansas City, we have a five percent chance to see a tornado within a 25 mile radius of your home.

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Make sure you have a way to get weather alerts, and remember severe thunderstorm warnings mean that a dangerous storm is imminent and should be headed as well, especially along a line of storms.

The good news is our window is small for severe weather 3 to 9 p.m. with the Kansas City area's risk ending by 7 p.m.