Weather Blog - Updated at 2:25 PM: Another Battle Of The Models With Weekend Rain Chances

Sunday Evening Forecast
Posted at 7:39 AM, Oct 21, 2021
and last updated 2021-10-21 15:28:43-04

Good afternoon bloggers,

The new data is in and the battle of the models continues. The morning entry is after this update:

The new data arrived this morning and here are the European Model and the American models updated from this morning's model runs:

European Model Forecast Valid 4 PM Sunday
American Model Forecast 4 PM Sunday

As you look at the blog I wrote earlier today, you will be able to see the consistency of each model.

  • The GFS, or American Model, continues to have a faster solution. This faster solution is important as it would limit the severe weather risk in Kansas City, and push it farther east and north.
  • The ECMWF, or European Model, continues to have a slower solution with a strong surface cyclone a bit better organized and slower. This would increase the risk of late afternoon and evening strong to severe thunderstorms near KC

We should see a trend in one of these models directions within the next 24 hours. I will go in-depth and discuss this battle of the models on KSHB-41.

Previous Entry Below:

Good morning bloggers,

We have another battle of the models with this weekend storm system. The American model won the battle the last time. The question is on the speed and strength of Sunday's storm system. Let's take a look.

The Set Up:

4 PM Friday Forecast

This map above shows the surface forecast valid 4 PM Friday. A front is forecast to stall over Kansas. This is called a stationary front which is defined as a front moving very slowly or stalled. This front is forecast to form near the Nebraska/Kansas border and then drift southeast. What happens Saturday night and Sunday is where our battle of the models develops.

Here is what happens on each model, as of the latest model run:

American Model Valid 7 PM Sunday
European Model Valid 7 PM Sunday

The American model has been faster and weaker on the storm system moving out into the middle of the nation Sunday. The European model has been stronger and slower. This speed and strength difference is producing different potential impacts on the weekend weather forecast. The top map shows the GFS model, or American model with a surface low forecast to be near Illinois Sunday evening and as a result the cold front has already zipped by KC. The European Model, on the other hand, is slower and stronger with Sunday's storm with the surface low over Kansas.

  • American Model Impacts: A chance of thunderstorms and rain showers moves in late Saturday morning, with a second round possibly developing Saturday night. On Sunday, the wind would shift to the northwest before any major thunderstorms form and the bigger impacts would be over northeastern Missouri and Illinois with some stronger thunderstorms.
  • European Model Impacts: The Saturday morning showers and thunderstorms are farther south on this model leaving us dry Saturday. Then there is a good chance of thunderstorms Saturday night with stronger thunderstorms a much higher threat Sunday.

At this moment, I lean in the direction of the American model as that model won the first battle of the models a couple of weeks ago. More on this battle tomorrow, and I may show the differences tonight on KSHB-41 if they still exist. There may be a trend towards the faster or slower solution as the new data comes out today

Either way, the models do have the stationary front turning into a warm front. This warm front will begin moving north Saturday, and this is when it will trigger the thunderstorms. This model below is the American Model version for Saturday night:

10 PM Saturday Forecast

Let's not worry about the models today. Today will be a great day. Expect a cooler high of 59 degrees this afternoon. A few spots may sneak back up into the lower 60s. And, then tonight we are forecasting lows from 35 to 42 degrees. A light frost is possible over northern Missouri, and there is even a chance of a light freeze near the Iowa border.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog. Have a great day!