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Weather Blog - Looking Ahead To AFC Championship Sunday & A Series Of Storms

Upper Level Flow Valid Monday
Posted at 8:07 AM, Jan 19, 2021
and last updated 2021-01-19 09:27:19-05

Good morning bloggers,

A very interesting weather pattern is developing over the next ten days. I hope everyone is doing well. Can you believe the end of that game Sunday? That incredible "fake" by Andy Reid and the Chiefs on 4th & 1 may be the best trick play of the year. He definitely tricked the Browns and all of us too. "There is a play", after Jim Nantz and Tony Romo were just like the rest of us thinking they would call a timeout. The rest is history. "HenneThingIsPossible"! Okay, back to the weather. On Sports Radio 810, WHB this morning, Steven, Nate, and Jake said it was just a normal play. I will stick to it being the best trick play of the year. OKAY, back to the weather!

AFC Championship Sunday's Surface Forecast Map:

Surface Forecast AFC Championship Sunday

There is a series of storms forecast to develop and impact the United States beginning this weekend. The first storm will track across our region Saturday into Sunday and this is causing us some forecast nightmares. Take a look at that forecast map above.

Here is what I see on this map. There is an area of snow across southern Iowa at 6 PM Sunday (which is the forecast time of this map), and an area of mix, in pink, near the Missouri/Iowa border. Rain is over southern Missouri, and it is dry in KC. This is just one of the many forecasts coming out for this weekend. There is something developing that will influence this pattern.

A Developing Block

Upper Level Flow Today

These next three maps, the one above, and the two below show a developing block at around 18,000 feet above us. This is forming today, and look at what happens in the next few days. Watch that area near Greenland, where I plotted Developing Upper High.

Upper Level Flow Forecast Saturday

The upper high forms by mid-week into where you can see it on Saturday, shown above. A deep trough is forming south of this blocking upper high, and the models are just horrible when a block like this forms. When I say "horrible", I mean the models are not able to forecast these types of systems, and then the impacts from the block.

Upper Level Flow Valid Monday

Look at this amazing map above. It is amazing to me, as that upper high is now up there by later today, and it will be influencing this pattern. When an upper high like this forms, the jet stream will be displaced southward a bit and it usually is energized. On last night's, overnight model run, the storm systems were suddenly a bit farther south and a bit stronger than what they looked like yesterday. One of these is moving across our region on Monday.

Surface Forecast Next Monday

There is a little blue strip of heavy snow, right over KC, on this forecast for next Monday morning. It is just a little strip, and just a forecast that has been on one model. So, let's see how this looks from day to day.

Surface Forecast Next Tuesday (Storm #2)

This map above shows the storm around one week from now. It would have to track a bit farther south, and then snow would be in our forecast. As is, this is too far north for much snow in our area, but how will that block really affect this pattern? I am uncertain at this moment on many of these features and developments.

A big Wednesday warm up:

Surface Flow Wednesday

The black solid lines are isobars. Look at the blue shade, showing the snow in Canada. South of that blue shade are a bunch or isobars. And, do you see the red dotted lines. Those are thickness lines. The 1000 to 500 mb thickness is getting higher, indicating a huge warm up. It could surge all the way to 60 degrees tomorrow before a change begins Thursday.

Temperatures Next Monday

The Arctic Air is staying north and there is a chance it will blast south with this developing block. The models are insisting it stays north, and as soon as I see a stronger indication of a southward plunge, we will let you know.

For now, and for the AFC Championship Game on Sunday, there is a front forecast to be in the area and moving through. It makes Sunday's forecast one of the most difficult forecasts of this next 7 day stretch. We will go in-depth tonight on 41 Action News.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. There is a lot in motion with this weather pattern and we will keep you updated on 41 Action News, and here in the blog. For now, it's a big warming trend.

Have a great day!

Gary