Good late afternoon bloggers,
I hope everyone is doing well. The weather pattern is starting to become a bit more active, and we will be monitoring Tropical Storm Cristobal closely. Yes, another early tropical storm has formed, and this is a record for the earliest third named storm. Cristobal is located way down in the Bay of Campeche, or the far southern Gulf of Mexico.
Weather2020 has been making tropical storm forecasts far in advance for years, and this developing storm was predicted to arrive around this week months ago. It is right on schedule according to the LRC. Now, where will it track. Some of the models take it into Missouri by early next week, so we will pay close attention.
You can see the enhanced infrared satellite picture with the organizing area of thunderstorms around Cristobal. It would be extremely rare for Cristobal to form into a hurricane this early. There is a pretty good chance it will form into one. To become a hurricane there has to be sustained winds of 65 knots, or 74 mph. Right now Cristobal has 40 mph winds near the center.
Kansas City Weather:
The brown dashed line is a trough of low pressure. It is really a very weak cold front that is stalling, or a stationary front. The winds will be converging together near this line, and it will create a developing zone for thunderstorms.
This developing zone will be the focusing area for thunderstorms near that trough. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds the main risks. The tornado risk is very, very low, but we always have to monitor each thunderstorm closely.
Have a great evening. We will look closer into KC's chance of thunderstorms tomorrow.