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Weather Blog: Three Chances of Rain

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Posted at 8:29 AM, Nov 21, 2020
and last updated 2020-11-21 09:30:15-05

Good Saturday bloggers,

We had a few rays of sun to start the day, but the clouds will win out.

We have had one main day of rain during the first 20 days of November. When we see strong winds and sunshine with low humidity our fire danger increases. There were several grass fires in central Kansas last Wednesday when we had those very conditions. We also have a moderate drought creeping into the region from the west.

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So, we can end these issues with widespread rain. There are three main chances, this afternoon/evening, Monday afternoon and Tuesday. Here is our forecast for the next three days. This include our first two rain chances.

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We only average 2.15" of rain in November, so it is not easy to get big rainfall totals this time of year. At this time, it looks like most locations will see .25" to 1" of rain by Tuesday night. This may not end the approaching drought, but it will knock down the higher fire danger and pointed in the right direction.

RAINFALL FORECAST TODAY-TUESDAY: The heaviest rain will occur along I-44 where 1" to 2" of rain is likely with some locations getting close to 3". Again, hopefully, we will all see at least .25" to 1".

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Here are some maps showing these three rain chances.

RAIN CHANCE #1: This first chance arrives Saturday afternoon and ends after midnight Saturday night. Drizzle may linger into Sunday morning. Temperatures during the rain will be 41-47.

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After any drizzle Sunday morning, the sky will clear leading to a nice fall afternoon. Temperatures will stay above freezing Saturday night, so no ice is expected.

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RAIN CHANCE #2: The second chance of rain arrives Monday afternoon into the evening as a disturbance and warm front approach from the west. Temperatures will be in the 40s with this as well, so no ice or snow.

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RAIN CHANCE #3: The third chance of rain is for Tuesday as a bigger system moves by. Right now it looks like it will get its act together as it moves east, so we would see 2-3 bands of light to moderate rain. If the storm intensifies faster, this could be a much bigger rain producer for our area. Again, no chance of ice and snow as temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s.

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Have a great weekend and stay healthy.